Patriots / Lions Preview

This weekend, the Detroit Lions (2 - 9) , losers of 4 of their last 5, come to town to face the AFC East leading New England Patriots (8 - 3) , winners of 2 straight, including a big win over a strongly hyped Chicago Bears team, and a 35 - 0 drubbing of the lowly Green Bay Packers.

On paper, the Lions look sorely over matched vs the Patriots (and everyone else for that matter), ranking in the bottom half of most defensive categories:

Overall yards allowed - 347 ypg (27th in the NFL)
Rushing yards allowed - 132 ypg (23rd)
Passing yards allowed - 215 ypg (19th)
Points allowed - 24 ppg (29th)

Ranking near dead last in rushing yards - 77 ypg (31st) and points scored - 17.7 ppg (25th).

And settling near the bottom of the pack in turnover differential - -6 (third worst in the NFC).

This match up for the Lions just doesn't look good as the Patriots rank near the top in almost every defensive category to go along with back to back strong offensive performances.

The Patriots run on everyone, the Lions can't stop anyone on the ground (Shaun Rogers is questionable for Sunday and didn't practice today).

The Patriots do not allow big running performances, the Lions have failed to have a running back notch 50+ yards on six separate performances, with Kevin Jones still hobbled.

The Patriots get at the Quarterback (with the best front 7 in football), the Lions have allowed the third most sacks (41) in the NFL, with their starting right tackle most likely out this week.

The lone shining light at the end of Detroit's tunnel is the passing game. The Lions rank near the top of the league in passing yards (generally a bi-product of playing from behind with a 2-9 mark however) and have a dangerous weapon in Roy Williams while the Patriots injury-riddled secondary will continue to be a question mark. Despite a huge game against the Bears (9 tackles, 3 int's) Asante Samuel still continues to make some poor decisions on deep jump balls, and could have some trouble with a large, athletic Williams. As a rule, however, I do not believe in white wide receivers, and believe that Ellis Hobbs will do a great job with locking down Michael Furrey. Out of the backfield, Kevin Jones has bee a viable target / safety valve for Kitna, unfortunately for the Lions, Belichick has a knack for shutting down backs out of the backfield (also a bi-product of the 3-4 defense).

The key to Detroit having any chance of winning this week relies heavily on Mike Martz's offensive game plan. Expect to see several five-wide sets to spread out the Patriots Defense, with a lot of short 3 step drops. The Patriots could be in trouble if the Lions pass protection is effective (a huge if) and Martz gets a chance to employ a lot of deep, double moves, much like the offense he ran in St Louis, as Hobbs and Samuel love to undercut routes- potentially running into trouble if the over the top help isn't there from two backup safeties.

Any betting man knows however, waging money on a Mike Martz game plan against a Bill Belichick game plan is a poor decision (Superbowl 36 anyone?) and whispers of this being a "trap game" should remain whispers - very quiet whispers. I don't see the pass protection for the Lions holding up well, as the Patriots will be lining up in more 4-3 defenses (watch out for Jarvis Green this week), and Kevin Jones will struggle to reach 75 total yards once again. Defensively, the Lions can get to the quarterback (James Hall and Cory Redding each with 5.0 sacks), however after holding down the Bears front 7 last week, the Lions should look like a walk in the park for the big bearded uglies protecting Brady this week.

If the Lions don't generate pressure, Brady should be able to pick apart a sub par Detroit secondary for just long enough to allow the Dynamic Duo (Dillon and Maroney) to wreak havoc on weak front 7.

Outcome: Brady avoids the bad luck interceptions this week, Detroit can't move the ball (or hold onto it) and the Patriots come away with a third convincing win in a row, somewhere in the area of 31-7.