Week 13 is upon us, and just as it is every year, this is about the time of year that the playoff picture begins to form, your elite teams begin to pull away, and your basement dwellers start playing for pride (jockeying for draft position).
This week we have four divisional match ups, none with any immediate playoff implications- unless we are talking about the NFC where everyone not named the Cardinals, Bucs and Lions are still alive and kicking- some absolute toilet bowls and one hell of a Sunday night showdown.
One of the most fascinating themes that have prevailed through the first 12 weeks has certainly been the disparity between the two conferences. The four best teams in the NFL reside in the AFC (New England, Indy, Baltimore and San Diego), each division in the AFC has at least two teams over .500, the entire NFC has only 6 teams with a winning record and finally, in the NFC, 4 sub .500 teams are still in the running to win their division. While I understand parity is a major part of today's NFL, under no circumstances should the San Fransisco Frank Gore's be in any position to win the West.
Got to love the salary cap...
Sunday kicks off with what should prove to be one hell of an NFC North showdown between first place Chicago ( 9 -2 ) and second place Minnesota ( 5 - 6 ). Minnesota marches into Chicago to face a Bears team coming off only it's second loss of the season. The fact that this should be a low scoring affair, lends itself to be a potential upset possibility, especially when you consider Chicago has shown a tendency to struggle against good game management quarterbacks, i.e. Brad Johnson. Rex Grossman will struggle greatly against Minnesota's defense, and no one should be surprised at this point, this is the same guy that couldn't beat out Kyle Orton for the starting job last year, Chester Taylor will break off at least one back breaking run behind that monster offensive line and the Vikings should squaek out with a 13 - 7 victory.
Another upset possibility rears its ugly head in the form of the Bucs ( 3 - 8 ) against the Steelers ( 4 - 7 ) without Hines Ward. Without any viable offensive targets outside of Willie Parker, Pittsburgh can expect a lot of 8 man fronts, which in turn means Ben Rothlesberger is going to have to win this game with his arm, with no one to throw to. With little run support, and no Ward to bail him out 6-8 times this week, i see Big Ben and the Steelers falling to the Bucs by at least 14. Bucs -24, Steelers - 13.
In an NFC West showdown, the Cardinals face an ice cold St Louis Rams team in the Dome, and in typical Dan Mexico fashion, I once again see the potential for a big upset here as Matt Leinart has looked great in his last two starts, and the Rams can't stop anything in the air. On paper, the Cards have been miserable, however it seems like the Cardinal receivers have adjusted to the former Trojan's quick release, and have the potential to be a dangerous combination. If I believed for a second that any Rams D-Back could defend L-Fitz, I would give this game to the Rams in a heartbeat, however, that clearly not being the case, I see the Cards winning in a shootout, 34-27.
In the NFC south, Indy SHOULD roll over the Titans, however you never know, as the Indy defense couldn't stop a solid flag football team. Luckily for the Colts, the Titans are one of only a few teams that have surrendered more points than themselves, and don't look to be able to slow down the rolling Colts offense. Colts win in another shootout, 31 - 21.
Down in Florida, a nice matchup between the Jags and Fins should be decided by the Jacksonville defense shutting down a refreshing Joey Harrington. While this should be an entertaining game, NFL games in Florida, in December, just don't get me going. Too much sunshine if you ask me. Jacksonville wins a good game however, 20 - 14.
The Saints don't lose at home, their tough in Cajun Country and the 49ers are pretty bad. Furthermore, as an American, I apparently can't root against them (fair enough, Katrina was kind of a pain in the ass) and Drew Brees has been playing at another level, averaging roughly 800 passing yards a game over the last month. This one won't be close. Saints win 27 - 6.
Michel Vick is now officially the most entertaining NFL player on the field, and off the field, and against a terrible Redskins team, should post some big numbers (that is assuming his receivers can catch.. anything.. and his offensive line decides to block... both big ifs after being thrown under the nearest Greyhound by Mr. Mexico last week). The Atlanta Vicks should come away with a solid 24-13 victory this week.
In my fantasy league this week, my opponent has Larry Johnson, which means the Browns will most certainly surrender just under 700 total yards this week in an absolute drubbing. Chiefs - 28, Browns - 10.
J.P. Losman remembers that he is J.P. Losman, and LT remembers he's LT this week, as the Chargers beat up on Buffalo this week, in Buffalo, 27 - 14.
I get excited about almost any NFL game, however the Green Bay Packers vs the New York Jets really isn't doing it for me. As much fun as it is watching Brett Favre consistently throw into triple coverage, and Chad Pennington grossly under throw open receivers, I don't see this one being a lot of fun. It will be close however, as the Jets will certainly struggle running the ball against a tough Packers run defense, and home field advantage should be on Green Bay's side, as the Pack pull out a 17 - 14 victory.
TONY ROMO!! ELI MANNING!! THE ULTIMATE SHOWDOWN!! CAN YOU FEEL THE EXCITEMENT!?!?! This one has to go to the Dallas Cowboys, as Tony Romo throws the sweetest 4 yard td pass anyone has ever seen, which is clearly why he should be a Pro Bowl quarterback, and Eli Manning might honestly be the worst quarterback this side of Aaron Brooks. Cowboys win 20 - 10. Giants suck.
The quality of play in this weeks Texans / Raiders match up might be half as good as that of our monthly pickup football game... if we are lucky. Between the two teams I can think of maybe 4 real potential stars, all of which reside on the defensive side of the ball, however, the Texans are so bad that I am actually forced to give this game to the Raiders. THE RAIDERS! Texans lose 10 - 17. That much closer to Troy Smith. Can you feel the magic?
I will be starting Shaun Alexander this week, which means you can almost count on a Bronco's win, and while the game will most likely turn out to be entertaining, I am more intrigued to see how Jay Cutler performs. This kid has all the tools to succeed right now as an NFL quarterback, some great targets out there (Smith and Walker) and at least one guy named Bell in the backfield. Normally, Alexander has freak show performances on Sunday Nights, however, like I mentioned before, he is on my fantasy roster, which means you should chalk Denver up for a 27 - 17 win.
Up until a week ago, this week's MNF match up looked like it had some great potential. Then McNabb went down with an ACL injury, and all of Philly promptly jumped off a cliff. And while I am all about reducing the amount of Philly fans in the world, I am not about the Eagles this week. The Carolina Smith's trounce The Replacements, 28 - 7.
Until next time... stay classy everyone!
-40
Friday, December 1, 2006
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Patriots / Lions Preview
This weekend, the Detroit Lions (2 - 9) , losers of 4 of their last 5, come to town to face the AFC East leading New England Patriots (8 - 3) , winners of 2 straight, including a big win over a strongly hyped Chicago Bears team, and a 35 - 0 drubbing of the lowly Green Bay Packers.
On paper, the Lions look sorely over matched vs the Patriots (and everyone else for that matter), ranking in the bottom half of most defensive categories:
Overall yards allowed - 347 ypg (27th in the NFL)
Rushing yards allowed - 132 ypg (23rd)
Passing yards allowed - 215 ypg (19th)
Points allowed - 24 ppg (29th)
Ranking near dead last in rushing yards - 77 ypg (31st) and points scored - 17.7 ppg (25th).
And settling near the bottom of the pack in turnover differential - -6 (third worst in the NFC).
This match up for the Lions just doesn't look good as the Patriots rank near the top in almost every defensive category to go along with back to back strong offensive performances.
The Patriots run on everyone, the Lions can't stop anyone on the ground (Shaun Rogers is questionable for Sunday and didn't practice today).
The Patriots do not allow big running performances, the Lions have failed to have a running back notch 50+ yards on six separate performances, with Kevin Jones still hobbled.
The Patriots get at the Quarterback (with the best front 7 in football), the Lions have allowed the third most sacks (41) in the NFL, with their starting right tackle most likely out this week.
The lone shining light at the end of Detroit's tunnel is the passing game. The Lions rank near the top of the league in passing yards (generally a bi-product of playing from behind with a 2-9 mark however) and have a dangerous weapon in Roy Williams while the Patriots injury-riddled secondary will continue to be a question mark. Despite a huge game against the Bears (9 tackles, 3 int's) Asante Samuel still continues to make some poor decisions on deep jump balls, and could have some trouble with a large, athletic Williams. As a rule, however, I do not believe in white wide receivers, and believe that Ellis Hobbs will do a great job with locking down Michael Furrey. Out of the backfield, Kevin Jones has bee a viable target / safety valve for Kitna, unfortunately for the Lions, Belichick has a knack for shutting down backs out of the backfield (also a bi-product of the 3-4 defense).
The key to Detroit having any chance of winning this week relies heavily on Mike Martz's offensive game plan. Expect to see several five-wide sets to spread out the Patriots Defense, with a lot of short 3 step drops. The Patriots could be in trouble if the Lions pass protection is effective (a huge if) and Martz gets a chance to employ a lot of deep, double moves, much like the offense he ran in St Louis, as Hobbs and Samuel love to undercut routes- potentially running into trouble if the over the top help isn't there from two backup safeties.
Any betting man knows however, waging money on a Mike Martz game plan against a Bill Belichick game plan is a poor decision (Superbowl 36 anyone?) and whispers of this being a "trap game" should remain whispers - very quiet whispers. I don't see the pass protection for the Lions holding up well, as the Patriots will be lining up in more 4-3 defenses (watch out for Jarvis Green this week), and Kevin Jones will struggle to reach 75 total yards once again. Defensively, the Lions can get to the quarterback (James Hall and Cory Redding each with 5.0 sacks), however after holding down the Bears front 7 last week, the Lions should look like a walk in the park for the big bearded uglies protecting Brady this week.
If the Lions don't generate pressure, Brady should be able to pick apart a sub par Detroit secondary for just long enough to allow the Dynamic Duo (Dillon and Maroney) to wreak havoc on weak front 7.
Outcome: Brady avoids the bad luck interceptions this week, Detroit can't move the ball (or hold onto it) and the Patriots come away with a third convincing win in a row, somewhere in the area of 31-7.
On paper, the Lions look sorely over matched vs the Patriots (and everyone else for that matter), ranking in the bottom half of most defensive categories:
Overall yards allowed - 347 ypg (27th in the NFL)
Rushing yards allowed - 132 ypg (23rd)
Passing yards allowed - 215 ypg (19th)
Points allowed - 24 ppg (29th)
Ranking near dead last in rushing yards - 77 ypg (31st) and points scored - 17.7 ppg (25th).
And settling near the bottom of the pack in turnover differential - -6 (third worst in the NFC).
This match up for the Lions just doesn't look good as the Patriots rank near the top in almost every defensive category to go along with back to back strong offensive performances.
The Patriots run on everyone, the Lions can't stop anyone on the ground (Shaun Rogers is questionable for Sunday and didn't practice today).
The Patriots do not allow big running performances, the Lions have failed to have a running back notch 50+ yards on six separate performances, with Kevin Jones still hobbled.
The Patriots get at the Quarterback (with the best front 7 in football), the Lions have allowed the third most sacks (41) in the NFL, with their starting right tackle most likely out this week.
The lone shining light at the end of Detroit's tunnel is the passing game. The Lions rank near the top of the league in passing yards (generally a bi-product of playing from behind with a 2-9 mark however) and have a dangerous weapon in Roy Williams while the Patriots injury-riddled secondary will continue to be a question mark. Despite a huge game against the Bears (9 tackles, 3 int's) Asante Samuel still continues to make some poor decisions on deep jump balls, and could have some trouble with a large, athletic Williams. As a rule, however, I do not believe in white wide receivers, and believe that Ellis Hobbs will do a great job with locking down Michael Furrey. Out of the backfield, Kevin Jones has bee a viable target / safety valve for Kitna, unfortunately for the Lions, Belichick has a knack for shutting down backs out of the backfield (also a bi-product of the 3-4 defense).
The key to Detroit having any chance of winning this week relies heavily on Mike Martz's offensive game plan. Expect to see several five-wide sets to spread out the Patriots Defense, with a lot of short 3 step drops. The Patriots could be in trouble if the Lions pass protection is effective (a huge if) and Martz gets a chance to employ a lot of deep, double moves, much like the offense he ran in St Louis, as Hobbs and Samuel love to undercut routes- potentially running into trouble if the over the top help isn't there from two backup safeties.
Any betting man knows however, waging money on a Mike Martz game plan against a Bill Belichick game plan is a poor decision (Superbowl 36 anyone?) and whispers of this being a "trap game" should remain whispers - very quiet whispers. I don't see the pass protection for the Lions holding up well, as the Patriots will be lining up in more 4-3 defenses (watch out for Jarvis Green this week), and Kevin Jones will struggle to reach 75 total yards once again. Defensively, the Lions can get to the quarterback (James Hall and Cory Redding each with 5.0 sacks), however after holding down the Bears front 7 last week, the Lions should look like a walk in the park for the big bearded uglies protecting Brady this week.
If the Lions don't generate pressure, Brady should be able to pick apart a sub par Detroit secondary for just long enough to allow the Dynamic Duo (Dillon and Maroney) to wreak havoc on weak front 7.
Outcome: Brady avoids the bad luck interceptions this week, Detroit can't move the ball (or hold onto it) and the Patriots come away with a third convincing win in a row, somewhere in the area of 31-7.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Welcome to the show.
We are going to make this short and sweet folks.
Welcome to my brand new NFL / NE Patriots blog. Basically, the purpose of this blog will be to take my thoughts on the NFL and the New England Patriots, and finally present them in some semblance of an organized mess for the world to view.
The motivation is sheerly recreational, if it makes me famous, so be it, if not, I am still smarter than Sean Salisbury.
What you can expect is a weekly preview of the games to come in the NFL, a more in depth preview of the Patriots match up, reviews of all the games and a weekly rundown of the Pats' performance. Being obsessed with fantasy sports, you better believe fantasy football will be incorporated into the mix on a weekly basis.
Like I said, short and sweet. Tomorrow you can expect my preview of the Pats / Lions game.
Until then, you stay classy .... whoever may actually be reading this.
-40
Welcome to my brand new NFL / NE Patriots blog. Basically, the purpose of this blog will be to take my thoughts on the NFL and the New England Patriots, and finally present them in some semblance of an organized mess for the world to view.
The motivation is sheerly recreational, if it makes me famous, so be it, if not, I am still smarter than Sean Salisbury.
What you can expect is a weekly preview of the games to come in the NFL, a more in depth preview of the Patriots match up, reviews of all the games and a weekly rundown of the Pats' performance. Being obsessed with fantasy sports, you better believe fantasy football will be incorporated into the mix on a weekly basis.
Like I said, short and sweet. Tomorrow you can expect my preview of the Pats / Lions game.
Until then, you stay classy .... whoever may actually be reading this.
-40
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